{"id":9,"date":"2014-04-09T23:24:46","date_gmt":"2014-04-09T23:24:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/?p=9"},"modified":"2014-04-09T23:36:52","modified_gmt":"2014-04-09T23:36:52","slug":"adferdafraedi-utgafa-1-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/?p=9","title":{"rendered":"A\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i &#8211; \u00fatg\u00e1fa 1.0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Kosningaspa.is er reiknil\u00edkan sem \u00e1kvar\u00f0ar fylgi frambo\u00f0a \u00ed a\u00f0draganda borgarstj\u00f3rnarkosninga \u00fat fr\u00e1 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0um\u00a0fyrirliggjandi sko\u00f0anakannana.<\/p>\n<p>Reikna\u00f0 er v\u00e6gi fyrir hverja k\u00f6nnun sem \u00e1kvar\u00f0ast af \u00feremur \u00fe\u00e1ttum:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>1. Hver framkv\u00e6mir k\u00f6nnunina<\/strong>: \u00e1rei\u00f0anlegri a\u00f0ilar f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>2. Hven\u00e6r k\u00f6nnunin var framkv\u00e6md<\/strong>: n\u00fdrri kannanir f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>3. Hva\u00f0 svara margir k\u00f6nnuninni<\/strong>: fj\u00f6lmennari kannanir f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>Fylgi frambo\u00f0a reiknast sem vegi\u00f0 me\u00f0altal af fyrirliggjandi k\u00f6nnunum.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>N\u00e1nari l\u00fdsing \u00e1 hva\u00f0 \u00e1kvar\u00f0ar v\u00e6gi kannana:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong><\/strong> 1. \u00c1rei\u00f0anleiki k\u00f6nnunara\u00f0ila er reikna\u00f0ur \u00fat fr\u00e1 s\u00f6gulegum sko\u00f0anak\u00f6nnunum og kosninga\u00farslitum. Kosningar sem reiknil\u00edkani\u00f0 byggir \u00e1 eru:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Borgarstj\u00f3rnarkosningar: 2002, 2006 og 2010.<\/li>\n<li>Al\u00feingiskosningar: 2007, 2009 og 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Sp\u00e1r k\u00f6nnunara\u00f0ila eru bornar saman vi\u00f0 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0ur kosninga.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Fr\u00e1vik er m\u00e6lt og nota\u00f0 til a\u00f0 \u00e1kvar\u00f0a \u00e1rei\u00f0anleika k\u00f6nnunara\u00f0ila a\u00f0 teknu tilliti til \u00a0fj\u00f6lda svarenda og hversu\u00a0langt er til kosninga. Auk \u00feess hefur fj\u00f6ldi kannana sem a\u00f0ili hefur birt \u00ed a\u00f0draganda kosninga \u00e1hrif \u00e1 \u00feennan \u00fatreikning (mean reveresion).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>2. V\u00e6gi k\u00f6nnunar \u00ed sp\u00e1 minnkar \u00feeim mun eldri sem k\u00f6nnunin er. Ef k\u00f6nnun er framkv\u00e6md yfir lengra t\u00edmabil er aldur m\u00e6ldur fr\u00e1 mi\u00f0ju t\u00edmabilinu.<\/p><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>3. Fj\u00f6lmennari kannanir f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi, en v\u00e6gisaukningin minnkar eftir \u00fev\u00ed sem svarfj\u00f6ldinn eykst.<\/p><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>A\u00f0 lokum ber a\u00f0 minnast \u00e1 a\u00f0 a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i kosningaspa.is byggir a\u00f0 verulegu leyti \u00e1 <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/pollster-ratings-v4-0-methodology\/\">a\u00f0fer\u00f0um <\/a>Nate Silver, sem \u00e1hugasamir eru hvattir til a\u00f0 kynna s\u00e9r \u00e1 <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\">fivethirtyeight.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u00cdtarlegri l\u00fdsing \u00e1 a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i kosningasp\u00e1.is ver\u00f0ur birt innan skamms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kosningaspa.is er reiknil\u00edkan sem \u00e1kvar\u00f0ar fylgi frambo\u00f0a \u00ed a\u00f0draganda borgarstj\u00f3rnarkosninga \u00fat fr\u00e1 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0um\u00a0fyrirliggjandi sko\u00f0anakannana. Reikna\u00f0 er v\u00e6gi fyrir hverja k\u00f6nnun sem \u00e1kvar\u00f0ast af \u00feremur \u00fe\u00e1ttum: 1. Hver framkv\u00e6mir k\u00f6nnunina: \u00e1rei\u00f0anlegri a\u00f0ilar f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi. 2. Hven\u00e6r k\u00f6nnunin var framkv\u00e6md: n\u00fdrri kannanir f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi. 3. Hva\u00f0 svara margir k\u00f6nnuninni: fj\u00f6lmennari kannanir f\u00e1 h\u00e6rra v\u00e6gi. Fylgi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adferdafraedi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9"}],"version-history":[{"count":46,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9\/revisions\/69"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kosningaspa.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}